What can Ross County expect from their post-split fixtures at the end of the Scottish Premiership season?
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This weekend Ross County play their final pre-split fixture in the Scottish Premiership, travelling to Tynecastle Park to take on Hearts.
Their final five fixtures are expected to be confirmed shortly after the full time whistle on Saturday, with Sunday's match between Aberdeen and Rangers having no bearing on who makes the top half.
So far, County are joined by Kilmarnock, Dundee United, St Johnstone and Motherwell in knowing they will definitely be in the bottom six.
The final team to join them could realistically be any of Livingston, Hibernian or St Mirren. So how will the Staggies' final run-in likely look? We've got you covered.
The definite opponents
In theory, the home and away balance between pairs of clubs should be evened out.
To this stage, teams have played each other three times, so if two of those have been away on paper the remaining match should be at home.
That is not always possible depending on which teams end up in either half, but applying the theory would see County's final games being Kilmarnock away, Dundee United away, St Johnstone home and Motherwell away.
Depending on who the final team in the bottom six is, that could well be doable from a scheduling stand point.
The unknown
That brings us to the three possible other teams in the mix.
Ross County would be due a home game against Livingston, having already visited the Lions twice this season.
Similarly, the Staggies have already been to Paisley twice this season, so would be due a home match in Dingwall.
Hibernian would throw a spanner in the works though. The Hibees have already been to the Global Energy Stadium twice, so would be due to host County at Easter Road.
If Hibernian were to be the last team in the bottom six, then, County should expect to host one team for the third time this season – meaning the situation could work out unbalanced, but in their favour to an extent.
What would this mean for Ross County's survival chances?
Whatever happens, Staggies fans should expect to be going on the road three times in their final five games – it is just a question of where and when.
Looking at the form table, it could certainly be worse for County. 15 of their points to date have come from 17 home matches, but 12 have come from 15 away matches, making it a pretty similar record.
The concern would come from the opposition. Kilmarnock have not won away from home all season, but have won almost half of their matches at Rugby Park.
Ironically, St Johnstone are at the opposite end of the scale. They have the worst home record of anyone in the Premiership with 12 points, but would sit fourth on 20 points if the table only showed away matches – something to be wary of if and when they visit Dingwall again.
Motherwell are also better on the road, winning 21 points away from home compared to just 15 at Fir Park, so a trip to South Lanarkshire may not be a bad outcome for County.
Dundee United are marginally better at home – as you may expect – with 17 points compared to 11 on their travels.
As for the unknown factor, St Mirren, Livingston and Hibernian have all been significantly better at home than away this season. So if County's second home game does come against any of them, it should be an opportunity to claim all three points.
Head-to-head records
The other factor to take into account is how County have performed against each of those sides this season.
The head-to-head record against Hibernian is nicely balanced, but with both teams picking up an away win and the third match in Dingwall ending in a draw.
County's record against St Johnstone is almost identical to Hibs, with one away win each and the third ending in a draw, although that was in Perth.
Livingston are similar too, with both teams winning away from home but then Livi picking up a crucial home win last month.
Against St Mirren, the home side has come out on top in all three league meetings in 2022/23 – again something that could bode well for County.
Motherwell have been something of a bogey team for the Staggies this year. A 1-1 draw at Fir Park was somewhat undone by two home losses that aggregate 7-0.
There have been plenty of goals against Dundee United too, but in that pairing it is the home side who usually comes out on top. United won 3-0 at Tannadice, County won 4-0 in Dingwall, and the third match ended 1-1 – also in the Highlands.
With Kilmarnock's woeful away record, it may come as no surprise that County won both home matches against Derek McInnes' side. They should not be taken for granted post-split though, especially at Rugby Park given that Killie won 1-0 against County there in October.
