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SNP could slip to 19 seats after next election, poll suggests

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The SNP could fall into second place in Scotland on just 19 seats after the next election, a new poll has suggested.

The YouGov survey of 18,761 UK adults used the multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP) method of projecting, which the pollster said accurately predicted the past two general elections, to understand how seats may fall on election day.

Labour, under the modelling, would sweep to victory, claiming more than 400 constituencies across the UK, as well as overtaking Humza Yousaf’s party north of the border.

Scottish Labour would claim 28 seats in Scotland up from the single constituency won in 2019, with the SNP dropping to less than 20 from 48.

Under the modelling Labour look set to win back its political heartland in Scotland across the central belt, winning just one seat, the Western Isles, outside of the area.

Elsewhere, the Tories will drop two seats to five, losing the West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine seat occupied by energy minister Andrew Bowie, focused in strongholds in the borders and the north east.

The Lib Dems would rise to five seats, picking up Mid Dunbartonshire, the precursor constituency to which Amy Callaghan won from former party leader Jo Swinson in 2019, from the SNP and Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is currently held by the SNP’s departing former Westminster leader Ian Blackford.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “After years of division and decline under both the SNP and the Tories, Scotland is crying out for change.

“Across the UK, voters are getting ready to kick out this rotten Tory government and here in Scotland we can lead the way in making that happen.

“Labour is taking nothing for granted and we will continue working tirelessly to earn voters’ trust.

“Change is possible and Labour is ready to deliver it, with our plan to make work pay, cut bills, renew public services and strengthen our economy.”

While SNP deputy Westminster leader Mhairi Black said: “It’s easy to see why voters are eager to see the back of this Conservative government which has forced upon them austerity measures, Brexit chaos, and a cost of living crisis to top it all off.

Labour doesn't need Scotland to win the election, but Scotland needs SNP MPs to defend Scottish interests at every opportunity
Mhairi Black

“Voters in Scotland are sick of the Tory government, but with Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak joined at the hip on spending cuts and so many other major issues, it’s clear that Labour does not offer a real alternative.

“Labour doesn’t need Scotland to win the election, but Scotland needs SNP MPs to defend Scottish interests at every opportunity.”

Scottish Lib Dem MSP Willie Rennie said: “People want change which is why the Liberal Democrats are growing.

“With a Liberal Democrat MP, you get someone who will stand up for your community and is for Scotland in the UK and for change across the country.

“Whether it’s seeing your GP, a dental appointment, improving education or the cost of living, the Liberal Democrats are focused on what matters.”

SNP policy is to push for “democratic effect” to be given to a mandate from the Scottish people in favour of independence if the party wins the majority of seats in Scotland at the next election.

But an earlier MRP poll, conducted by Survation and published at the weekend, put the SNP on 41 seats north of the border.

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