Proposed carbon budgets outlined to replace net zero targets

The Scottish Government has unveiled its proposals for carbon budgets to replace its net zero targets.

Under former first minister Humza Yousaf, the Government announced plans to abandon the interim target of reducing emissions by 75% by the end of the decade, accepting the goal was “out of reach”, but remaining committed to reaching net zero by 2045.

Instead, ministers pledged a five-yearly cycle of carbon budgets, which aim to wind down emission more steadily and be more resistant to outside forces like unseasonable cold snaps driving up heating demand.

Climate Change Secretary Gillian Martin stressed Scotland will not “sacrifice people’s health or wealth” to reach net zero.

Between 2026 and 2030, according to the Government’s proposals, emissions should be 57% lower than the 1990 baseline.

Between 2031 and 2035, the target is a 69% reduction from the baseline, and 80% for the following five years.

In the final years of the plan – 2041 to 2045 – emissions should have reduced by 94%, with the aim remaining for Scotland to reach net zero by this time.

The Government has said the remaining 6% would amount to around 24 mega tonnes of carbon emissions.

“Scotland is now halfway to our 2045 climate change target and is ahead of the UK as a whole in reducing long-term emissions,” Ms Martin said.

“These carbon budgets will set clear limits on emissions for the coming decades in line with the independent advice of the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC).

“When we publish our draft Climate Change Plan later this year, it will set out the policies needed to continue to reduce our emissions and meet our first three carbon budget targets.”

Ms Martin added that the plan “will not ask the impossible of people”.

“While we welcome the UK CCC’s advice on how to stay within these limits, as they make clear, it is always for Scotland to decide whether those policies are right for us,” she said.

“This means, for example, that we will chart our own path on forestry, going further than the CCC suggest.

“And, to ensure we protect rural communities and have a thriving rural economy, we will not adopt all their recommendations on agriculture and peatland and will instead meet our targets in a way which works for rural Scotland, including supporting and protecting our iconic livestock industries.

“These carbon budgets keep Scotland at the forefront of efforts to protect the planet and our Climate Change Plan will ensure the action we take is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.”

The budgets will be voted on by MSPs and, if passed, will be used to inform the plan.

The announcement was welcomed by WWF Scotland, but the group urged the Government to commit to “strong action” to meet the targets.

Claire Daly, the group’s head of policy and advocacy, said: “It’s good to see the Scottish Government has adopted the Climate Change Committee’s carbon budget and is reaffirming its commitment to reaching net zero climate emissions by 2045, transforming our economy, and improving the lives of people in Scotland.

“However, these commitments will remain merely lines on a page without strong action to back them up, including measures to support clean heating in our homes and the transition to more climate and nature-friendly agriculture.

“Future generations cannot afford any more missed climate targets, and this carbon budget must be set for success with strong policies to reduce emissions.”

Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie, who was a government minister until last year, accused the Government of “watering down” its targets.

“Climate experts have been clear that the Scottish Government has failed to take on board the urgent action needed. They issued warning after warning, but the SNP have failed to step up and tackle the climate crisis head on,” he said.

“The CCC is clear – we can reach Scotland’s 2045 target. But that will only happen if we are brave enough to have less words and more action to get the job done. Today’s announcement does not show bravery from the SNP.”

Labour net zero spokeswoman Sarah Boyack said: “As we saw last year when SNP ministers ditched their targets on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, it is one thing to make announcements and another thing to actually deliver.

“What we must see now from the Scottish Government is a credible plan of actions to achieve these new targets, as future generations cannot afford to be let down again.”

Scottish Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur urged the Government to back the targets with action.

“To date, the SNP have failed to do the hard graft of insulating homes, creating good jobs and making sure everyone benefits from the transition to net zero,” he said.

“If these targets are to be met, the SNP need to stop blowing hot air and get on with the job.”