Poll suggests pro-independence majority at Holyrood with SNP on 59 seats

The SNP would comfortably emerge as the largest party with a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, a poll has suggested.

Research carried out by Norstat for the Sunday Times in the wake of John Swinney’s first Budget put the First Minister’s party on 37% for constituency votes and at 32% on the regional list.

It also put support for a Yes vote in a Scottish independence referendum at 54% when “don’t knows” are excluded, the highest level recorded in four years.

Just 21% of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election

Analysis of the poll by expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would be on 59 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Conservatives on 19, Reform on 13, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on seven.

Such a result would mean a pro-independence majority of three seats at Holyrood, securing John Swinney’s place as First Minister.

The SNP are currently governing as a minority with 62 MSPs.

The poll put support for Anas Sarwar’s party at 21% in the constituency vote and 18% in the regional list.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives were on 14% in the constituency vote and 16% in the regional list.

Writing in the Sunday Times, Sir John said Labour’s vote is being squeezed by the rising Reform UK vote as well as a resurgent SNP.

He said: “Just 21% of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election.

“The party is being squeezed at both ends of the political spectrum.

“At 12%, the proportion of those who voted Labour in July who now say they would vote SNP is double the equivalent figure in August.

(Labour's) support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence

“Yet 13% of the Labour’s July vote has now switched to Reform UK, up from just 5% in August.

“Consequently, the party’s support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence.”

Sir John said the blame for Labour’s decline appeared to lie with the Prime Minister, whose net approval rating was at minus 32%.

Commenting on the poll, SNP MSP Emma Harper said: “Increasing support for independence is a sign that the people of Scotland know that Westminster, no matter who is in government, is failing them – a better future as an independent nation is possible.

“After extensively listening to the public, the SNP Government has produced a budget that benefits everyone in Scotland and delivers on the people’s priorities – parliament must now back it.

“The SNP will continue to set out a better alternative, demonstrating how independence can allow us to properly tackle the challenges facing people in Scotland and build a better, fairer, more prosperous society for everyone.”

I do actually think Keir Starmer is doing a good job, because he's cleaning up the mess left by the Tories. Ultimately, he has come into a situation where the Tories wrecked our public finances, wrecked the public services and had a flatlining economy

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was asked about the poll on the BBC’s Sunday Show.

He pointed to recent council by-elections around Scotland, saying the SNP have lost 19 of the last 20 of these.

On the Prime Minister, he said: “I do actually think Keir Starmer is doing a good job, because he’s cleaning up the mess left by the Tories.”

He added: “Ultimately, he has come into a situation where the Tories wrecked our public finances, wrecked the public services and had a flatlining economy.”